MeritValue

ARCBEST CORP /TX/

ARCBdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

ARCBEST CORP /TX/ earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $53.35 and $87.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.77B1$5.03B2$4.43B3$4.18B3$4.01B3
Net income$213.5M4$298.2M5$195.4M6$174M6$60.1M6
Operating cash flow$323.5M7$470.8M8$322.2M9$285.8M9$229M9
Capital expenditure$58.4M10$148.2M11$219M12$223.1M12$114.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$265.1M7$322.6M8$103.1M9$62.7M9$114.2M9
Total debt—$529.2M13$457.9M14$378.3M15$223.9M15
Cash & equivalents$76.6M16$158.3M17$262.2M18$127.4M19$102M19
Diluted shares26.8M25.5M24.6M23.8M22.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$565
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.21
Free cash flow it threw off
$49.79
Debt you’d be carrying
$97.61

10 shares is a claim on $565 of net worth that earned you $26.21 and generated $49.79 of cash last year, against $97.61 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 25%FY22 19%FY23 10%FY24 11%FY25 4%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 58% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $53.35 and $87.49 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$53.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$103.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$58.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$103.1M
Earnings Power Value
$87.49
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$195.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$57.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $58.1
The three cases
Bear0.0%$58.1
Base0.0%$58.1
Bull5.0%$73.42

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001622 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019699 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001622 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019699 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001622 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019699 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001622 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019699 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001622 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002037 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019699 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001622 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019699 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)