MeritValue

ACCURAY INC

ARAYdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ACCURAY INC earns about 2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$396.3M1$429.9M2$447.6M2$446.6M3$458.5M3
Net income−$6.31M4−$5.35M5−$9.28M5−$15.5M6−$1.59M6
Operating cash flow$38.5M7−$2.4M8$15.5M8−$11.9M9$2.86M9
Capital expenditure$2.32M10$4.72M11$12.6M11$3.6M12$4.27M12
Free cash flow (derived)$36.2M7−$7.12M8$2.93M8−$15.5M9−$1.41M9
Total debt$351.4M13$369.5M14$360.3M15$352.1M16$285.8M16
Cash & equivalents$116.4M17$88.7M18$89.4M19$68.6M20$57.4M20
Diluted shares92.0M92.1M94.9M98.3M102.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$7.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.15
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$27.81

10 shares is a claim on $7.9 of net worth that earned you −$0.15 and generated −$0.14 of cash last year, against $27.81 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 1%FY23 1%FY24 -0%FY25 2%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 5y

Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 19% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-047052 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-108118 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-004219 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-047052 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-108118 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-004219 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-047052 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-108118 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-004219 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-047052 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-108118 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-004219 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-22-017550 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-047052 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-108118 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-004219 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-22-017550 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-047052 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-108118 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-004219 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)