MeritValue

ANTERO RESOURCES Corp

ARdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ANTERO RESOURCES Corp earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.86 and $54.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.51B1$8.71B2$4.48B3$4.3B3$5.14B3
Net income−$154.1M4$2B5$297.3M6$93.7M6$674.6M6
Operating cash flow$1.66B7$3.05B8$994.7M9$849.3M9$1.63B9
Capital expenditure$715.9M10$944M10———
Free cash flow (derived)$944.2M7$2.11B8———
Total debt$2.13B11$1.18B12$1.54B13$1.49B14$1.4B14
Cash & equivalents$015$016$016$016$210M16
Diluted shares308.1M329.2M311.6M313.4M312.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$241.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.6
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$44.76

10 shares is a claim on $241.73 of net worth that earned you $21.6 last year, against $44.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 24%FY23 2%FY24 -0%FY25 8%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 34% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.86 and $54.39 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$54.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$944.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$49.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$944.2M
Earnings Power Value
$9.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$297.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.23
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $49.84
The three cases
Bear0.0%$39.38
Base5.0%$49.84
Bull10.0%$62.35

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001162 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000864 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013386 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001162 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000864 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013386 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001162 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000864 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013386 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001378 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001378 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001162 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000864 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013386 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000864 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013386 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)