MeritValue

ALGONQUIN POWER & UTILITIES CORP.

AQNdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

ALGONQUIN POWER & UTILITIES CORP. earns about 1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 23% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.38 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.27B1$2.77B2$2.4B3$2.32B4$2.43B4
Net income$264.9M5−$212M6$28.7M7−$1.38B8$180.8M8
Operating cash flow$157.5M9$619.1M10$628M11$481.7M12$593.6M12
Capital expenditure$1.35B13$1.09B14$1.03B15$872.4M16$771.9M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.19B9−$469.9M10−$398.1M11−$390.7M12−$178.3M12
Total debt$12.9B17$15.7B18$15.8B19$13.5B20$14.3B20
Cash & equivalents$125.2M21$57.6M22$25.1M23$34.8M24$32.7M24
Diluted shares628.9M677.9M690.8M734.0M772.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$60.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.34
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.31
Debt you’d be carrying
$184.87

10 shares is a claim on $60.09 of net worth that earned you $2.34 and generated −$2.31 of cash last year, against $184.87 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 -0%FY23 1%FY24 1%FY25 2%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+23% shares · 5y

Share count is up 23% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 11% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.38
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$28.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$5.47
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174169-23-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174169-24-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174169-25-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001174169-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174169-23-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174169-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174169-25-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001174169-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174169-23-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174169-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174169-25-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001174169-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174169-23-000023 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174169-24-000019 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174169-25-000020 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001174169-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  17. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174169-23-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174169-24-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174169-25-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001174169-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174169-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174169-24-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174169-25-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001174169-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)