MeritValue

Aqua Metals, Inc.

AQMSdata completeness 75%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Aqua Metals, Inc. earns about -193% on invested capital, and has bought back 98% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$173,0001$4,0002$25,0003$03—
Net income−$18.2M4−$15.4M5−$23.9M6−$24.6M7−$22.6M7
Operating cash flow−$7.06M8−$10.1M9−$3.19M10−$13.6M11−$10.3M11
Capital expenditure$2.35M12$4.77M13$5.6M14$7.92M15$425,00015
Free cash flow (derived)−$9.41M8−$14.9M9−$8.79M10−$21.6M11−$10.7M11
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$8.14M16$7.08M17$16.5M18$4.08M19$10.8M19
Diluted shares70.0M75.8M4.7M641,9601.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$98.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$151.53
Free cash flow it threw off
−$71.45
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $98.83 of net worth that earned you −$151.53 and generated −$71.45 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-193% avg · 5y
FY21 -74%FY22 -87%FY23 -193%FY24 -159%FY25 -452%

It earned an average -193% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−98% shares · 5y

Share count is down 98% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005964 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009870 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010177 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005964 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009870 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010177 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010705 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005964 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009870 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010177 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010705 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005964 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009870 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010177 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010705 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005964 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009870 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010177 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010705 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)