MeritValue

Aptiv PLC

APTVdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Aptiv PLC earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 19% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.63 and $345.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$15.6B1$17.5B2$20.1B3$19.7B3$20.4B3
Net income$590M4$594M5$2.94B6$1.79B6$165M6
Operating cash flow$1.22B7$1.26B8$1.9B9$2.45B9$2.19B9
Capital expenditure$611M10$844M10$906M11$830M11$656M11
Free cash flow (derived)$611M7$419M8$990M9$1.62B9$1.53B9
Total debt$4.07B12$13.1B13$12.5B14$16.8B15$15.2B15
Cash & equivalents$3.14B16$1.53B17$1.64B18$1.57B19$1.85B19
Diluted shares271.2M271.2M282.9M256.7M220.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$417.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.47
Free cash flow it threw off
$69.26
Debt you’d be carrying
$688.74

10 shares is a claim on $417.08 of net worth that earned you $7.47 and generated $69.26 of cash last year, against $688.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 5%FY23 7%FY24 9%FY25 3%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−19% shares · 5y

Share count is down 19% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 274% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.63 and $345.83 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$345.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.53B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$162.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.53B
Earnings Power Value
$27.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$594M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$27.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $162.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$37.17
Base20.0%$162.12
Bull20.0%$162.12

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001521332-24-000011 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001521332-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001521332-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001521332-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001521332-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001521332-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001521332-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001521332-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001521332-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001521332-23-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001521332-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001521332-23-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001521332-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001521332-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001521332-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001521332-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001521332-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001521332-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001521332-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)