MeritValue

ALPHA PRO TECH LTD

APTdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

ALPHA PRO TECH LTD earns about 7% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 22% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.86 and $4.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$68.6M1$62M2$61.2M3$57.8M4$59.1M4
Net income$6.76M5$3.28M6$4.19M7$3.93M8$3.53M8
Operating cash flow−$480,0009$4.28M10$8.46M11$5.7M12$2.37M12
Capital expenditure$2.52M13$492,00014$792,00015$3.81M16$639,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$3M9$3.79M10$7.67M11$1.89M12$1.73M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$16.3M17$16.3M18$20.4M19$18.6M20$17M20
Diluted shares13.5M12.8M11.9M11.2M10.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$59.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.35
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.64
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $59.22 of net worth that earned you $3.35 and generated $1.64 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
7% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 5%FY23 7%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned about 7% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−22% shares · 5y

Share count is down 22% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.86 and $4.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.89M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.89M
Earnings Power Value
$3.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.93M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.17
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.17
Base0.0%$4.17
Bull5.0%$4.79

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006845 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007539 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007218 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007797 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006845 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007539 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007218 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007797 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006845 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007539 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007218 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007797 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006845 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007539 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007218 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007797 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006845 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007539 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007218 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007797 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)