APPFOLIO INC
APPFdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on fileAPPFOLIO INC earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.77 and $308.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $359.4M1 | $471.9M2 | $620.4M3 | $794.2M3 | $950.8M3 |
| Net income | $1.03M4 | −$68.1M5 | $2.7M6 | $204.1M6 | $140.9M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $35.4M7 | $25.4M8 | $60.3M9 | $188.2M9 | $242.1M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $8.1M10 | $6.54M11 | $9.04M12 | $2.02M12 | $3.16M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $27.3M7 | $18.8M8 | $51.2M9 | $186.1M9 | $239M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $57.8M13 | $70.8M14 | $49.5M15 | $42.5M15 | $107M15 |
| Diluted shares | 35.7M | 35.0M | 36.4M | 36.8M | 36.3M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $149.36 of net worth that earned you $38.79 and generated $65.78 of cash last year.
It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.77 and $308.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$186.1M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$186.1M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$2.7M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $76.16 |
| Base | 20.0% | $170.01 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $170.01 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001433195-24-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001433195-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001433195-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001433195-24-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001433195-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001433195-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001433195-24-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001433195-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001433195-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001433195-24-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001433195-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001433195-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001433195-24-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001433195-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001433195-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)