MeritValue

AppLovin Corp

APPdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AppLovin Corp earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.81 and $171.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.79B1$2.82B2$1.84B3$3.22B3$5.48B3
Net income$35.4M4−$192.7M5$356.7M6$1.58B6$3.33B6
Operating cash flow$361.9M7$412.8M8$1.06B9$2.1B9$3.97B9
Capital expenditure$1.39M10$662,00011$4.25M11$4.78M11—
Free cash flow (derived)$360.5M7$412.1M8$1.06B9$2.09B9—
Total debt$6.48B12$6.46B13$6.46B14$7.02B15$7.03B15
Cash & equivalents$1.52B16$1.08B17$502.2M18$697M19$2.49B19
Diluted shares342.8M371.6M362.6M347.8M342.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$62.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$97.49
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$205.46

10 shares is a claim on $62.42 of net worth that earned you $97.49 last year, against $205.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 0%FY22 -0%FY23 10%FY24 26%FY25 54%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.81 and $171.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$171.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.06B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$87.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.06B
Earnings Power Value
$10.81
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$356.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$37.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $87.53
The three cases
Bear0.0%$30.9
Base20.0%$87.53
Bull20.0%$87.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001751008-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001751008-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001751008-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001751008-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001751008-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001751008-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001751008-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001751008-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001751008-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001751008-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001751008-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001751008-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001751008-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001751008-25-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001751008-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001751008-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001751008-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001751008-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001751008-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)