MeritValue

Apollo Global Management, Inc.

APOdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Apollo Global Management, Inc. earns about 46% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 151% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $60.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.95B1$11B2$32.6B3$26.1B3$32B3
Net income$1.84B4−$1.96B5$5.05B6$4.58B6$3.49B6
Operating cash flow$1.06B7$3.79B8$6.32B9$3.25B9$7.25B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$3.13B10$6.47B11$8.09B12$10.6B13$13.4B13
Cash & equivalents$917M14$8.98B14$17.7B15$17.1B15$20.6B15
Diluted shares236.6M584.7M588.8M604.0M593.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$393.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$58.82
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$225.11

10 shares is a claim on $393.17 of net worth that earned you $58.82 last year, against $225.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
46% avg · 5y
FY21 73%FY22 -77%FY23 132%FY24 63%FY25 37%

It earned an average 46% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+151% shares · 5y

Share count is up 151% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 326% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$60.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.49B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$70.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001858681-24-000031 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001858681-25-000034 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001858681-26-000013 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001858681-24-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001858681-25-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001858681-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001858681-24-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001858681-25-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001858681-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001858681-23-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001858681-24-000031 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001858681-25-000034 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001858681-26-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001858681-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001858681-26-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)