MeritValue

AMPHENOL CORP /DE/

APHdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AMPHENOL CORP /DE/ earns about 65% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 104% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.64 and $94.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.9B1$12.6B2$12.6B3$15.2B3$23.1B3
Net income$1.59B4$1.9B5$1.93B6$2.42B6$4.27B6
Operating cash flow$1.54B7$2.17B8$2.53B9$2.81B9$5.37B9
Capital expenditure$360.4M10$383.8M11$372.8M12$665.4M12$996.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.18B7$1.79B8$2.16B9$2.15B9$4.38B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.2B13$1.37B14$1.48B15$3.32B16$11.1B16
Diluted shares625.5M1.24B1.24B1.26B1.28B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$104.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$33.43
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.27
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $104.99 of net worth that earned you $33.43 and generated $34.27 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
65% avg · 5y
FY21 33%FY22 36%FY23 30%FY24 38%FY25 189%

It earned about 65% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+104% shares · 5y

Share count is up 104% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.64 and $94.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$94.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.9%
  • fcfBase$2.16B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$59.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.9%
  • fcfBase$2.16B
Earnings Power Value
$15.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.93B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$28.09
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $59.44
The three cases
Bear0.0%$32.82
Base17.9%$59.44
Bull20.0%$63.73

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-000866 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000714 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013549 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-000866 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000714 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013549 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-000866 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000714 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013549 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-000866 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000714 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013549 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-000866 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000714 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013549 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)