MeritValue

Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.

APDdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. earns about 18% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $104.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.3B1$12.7B2$12.6B3$12.1B3$12B3
Net income$2.1B4$2.26B5$2.3B6$3.83B6−$394.5M6
Operating cash flow$3.34B7$3.17B8$3.21B9$3.65B9$3.26B9
Capital expenditure$2.46B10$2.93B11$4.63B12$6.8B12$7.02B12
Free cash flow (derived)$871M7$244.1M8−$1.42B9−$3.15B9−$3.77B9
Total debt$2.4M13$10.7M14$259.5M15$83.5M16$34.7M16
Cash & equivalents$4.47B17$2.71B18$1.62B19$2.98B20$1.86B20
Diluted shares222.5M222.5M222.7M222.8M222.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$674.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$17.71
Free cash flow it threw off
−$169.1
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.56

10 shares is a claim on $674.67 of net worth that earned you −$17.71 and generated −$169.1 of cash last year, against $1.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 23%FY23 19%FY24 27%FY25 -3%

It earned an average 18% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 1346% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$104.01
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.26B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000002969-23-000047 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000002969-24-000056 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000002969-25-000055 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000002969-23-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000002969-24-000056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000002969-25-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000002969-23-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000002969-24-000056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000002969-25-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000002969-23-000047 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000002969-24-000056 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000002969-25-000055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000002969-22-000054 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000002969-23-000047 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000002969-24-000056 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000002969-25-000055 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000002969-22-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000002969-23-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000002969-24-000056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000002969-25-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)