MeritValue

APA Corp

APAdata completeness 75%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

APA Corp earns about 647% on invested capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $41.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$1.31B1$4.08B2$2.86B3$804M3$1.43B3
Operating cash flow$3.5B4$4.94B5$3.13B6$3.62B6$4.55B6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$215M7$2M8$2M9$53M10$213M10
Cash & equivalents$302M11$245M12$87M13$625M14$516M14
Diluted shares375.0M333.0M309.0M353.0M359.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$169.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$39.94
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.93

10 shares is a claim on $169.72 of net worth that earned you $39.94 last year, against $5.93 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
647% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 2399%FY23 126%FY24 30%FY25 33%

It earned an average 647% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$41.39
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.43B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$39.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001784031-24-000003 (ProfitLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002040266-25-000007 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001841666-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001784031-24-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002040266-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001841666-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001784031-23-000007 (DebtCurrent)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001784031-24-000003 (DebtCurrent)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002040266-25-000007 (DebtCurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001841666-26-000015 (DebtCurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001784031-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001784031-24-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002040266-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001841666-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)