MeritValue

American Outdoor Brands, Inc.

AOUTdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

American Outdoor Brands, Inc. earns about -8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.18 and $6.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$247.5M1$191.2M2$201.1M3$222.3M3$190.5M3
Net income−$64.9M4−$12M5−$12.2M6−$77,0006−$9.21M6
Operating cash flow−$18M7$30.7M8$24.5M9$1.36M9$6.32M9
Capital expenditure$3.4M10$1.3M11$4.77M12$3.15M12$2.05M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$21.4M7$29.4M8$19.7M9−$1.79M9$4.27M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$19.5M13$22M14$29.7M15$23.4M16$21.4M16
Diluted shares13.9M13.4M13.0M12.8M12.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$131.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.32
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.39
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $131.8 of net worth that earned you −$7.32 and generated $3.39 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-8% avg · 5y
FY22 -24%FY23 -6%FY24 -7%FY25 0%FY26 -5%

It earned about -8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.18 and $6.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$6.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$4.27M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$4.27M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.55
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.55
Base0.0%$6.55
Bull5.0%$7.72

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000950170-24-078463 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001808997-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001808997-26-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000950170-24-078463 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001808997-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001808997-26-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000950170-24-078463 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001808997-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001808997-26-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000950170-24-078463 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001808997-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001808997-26-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000950170-23-030394 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000950170-24-078463 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001808997-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0001808997-26-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)