MeritValue

ALPHA & OMEGA SEMICONDUCTOR Ltd

AOSLdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

ALPHA & OMEGA SEMICONDUCTOR Ltd earns about 16% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $4.32 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$656.9M1$777.6M2$691.3M3$657.3M3$696.2M3
Net income$58.1M4$453.2M5$12.4M6−$11.1M6−$97M6
Operating cash flow$128.7M7$218.9M8$20.5M9$25.7M9$29.7M9
Capital expenditure$72.7M10$138M11$110.4M12$37.1M12$37.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$56M7$80.9M8−$90M9−$11.4M9−$7.51M9
Total debt$272M13$110.5M14$88.2M15$65.1M16$41.6M16
Cash & equivalents$202.4M17$314.4M18$195.2M19$175.1M19$153.1M19
Diluted shares27.3M28.2M29.5M28.2M29.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$279.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$32.98
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.55
Debt you’d be carrying
$14.15

10 shares is a claim on $279.66 of net worth that earned you −$32.98 and generated −$2.55 of cash last year, against $14.15 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 70%FY23 2%FY24 0%FY25 -3%

It earned an average 16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 85% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$4.32
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$12.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001387467-23-000049 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001387467-24-000073 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-041297 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001387467-23-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001387467-24-000073 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-041297 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001387467-23-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001387467-24-000073 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-041297 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001387467-23-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001387467-24-000073 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-041297 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001387467-22-000066 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001387467-23-000049 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001387467-24-000073 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-041297 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001387467-23-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001387467-24-000073 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-041297 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)