MeritValue

Aon plc

AONdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Aon plc earns about 11% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $122.44 and $174.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.2B1$12.5B2$13.4B3$15.7B3$17.2B3
Net income$1.26B4$2.59B5$2.56B6$2.65B6$3.7B6
Operating cash flow$2.18B7$3.22B8$3.44B9$3.04B9$3.48B9
Capital expenditure$137M10$196M11$252M12$218M12$263M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.05B7$3.02B8$3.18B9$2.82B9$3.22B9
Total debt$18.8B13$21.5B14$22.4B15$34B16$30.5B16
Cash & equivalents$544M17$690M18$778M19$1.09B19$1.2B19
Diluted shares226.1M213.2M205.0M212.5M217.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$430.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$170.2
Free cash flow it threw off
$148.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,404.79

10 shares is a claim on $430.77 of net worth that earned you $170.2 and generated $148.23 of cash last year, against $1,404.79 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 15%FY23 15%FY24 7%FY25 10%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 62% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $122.44 and $174.54 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$174.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.4%
  • fcfBase$3.18B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$137.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.4%
  • fcfBase$3.18B
Earnings Power Value
$122.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.59B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$128.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.4%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $137.45
The three cases
Bear0.0%$71.74
Base6.4%$137.45
Bull11.4%$200.22

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005392 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006093 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008116 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005392 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006093 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008116 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005392 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006093 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008116 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005392 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006093 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008116 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004087 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005392 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006093 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008116 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005392 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006093 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008116 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)