MeritValue

Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.

AOMRdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 17% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $12.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$60.6M1$115.5M2$96M3$110.4M4$143.7M4
Net income$21.1M5−$187.8M6$33.7M7$28.8M8$44M8
Operating cash flow−$1.57B9−$331.1M10$306.4M11−$221.5M12−$407M12
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt———$1.82B13$2.28B13
Cash & equivalents$40.8M14$29.3M15$41.6M16$40.8M17$41.6M17
Diluted shares20.9M24.5M24.9M24.4M24.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$110.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.11
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$936.53

10 shares is a claim on $110.03 of net worth that earned you $18.11 last year, against $936.53 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 -49%FY23 46%FY24 3%FY25 3%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+17% shares · 5y

Share count is up 17% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 25% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$12.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$28.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.11
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001766478-23-000036 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001766478-24-000018 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001766478-25-000019 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001766478-26-000002 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001766478-23-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001766478-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001766478-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001766478-26-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001766478-23-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001766478-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001766478-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001766478-26-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001766478-26-000002 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001766478-23-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001766478-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001766478-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001766478-26-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)