AN2 Therapeutics, Inc.

ANTXdata completeness 63%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

AN2 Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -56% on equity, but has diluted owners by 1045% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	−$21.5M¹	−$41M²	−$64.7M³	−$51.3M⁴	−$35.2M⁴
Operating cash flow	−$20.5M⁵	−$33.5M⁶	−$53.3M⁷	−$49.3M⁸	−$29.8M⁸
Capital expenditure	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	—	—	—	—	—
Total debt	—	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$12.1M⁹	$27.2M¹⁰	$15.6M¹¹	$21.4M¹²	$19.9M¹²
Diluted shares	2.6M	15.3M	23.6M	29.8M	30.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$17.56

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$11.64

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $17.56 of net worth that earned you −$11.64 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-56% avg · 5y

FY21 —FY22 -43%FY23 -52%FY24 -63%FY25 -66%

It earned an average -56% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+1045% shares · 5y

Share count is up 1045% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010627 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038681 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-044366 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110693 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010627 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038681 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-044366 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110693 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010627 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038681 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-044366 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110693 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)