MeritValue

Antalpha Platform Holding Co

ANTAdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Antalpha Platform Holding Co earns about -15% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 29% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.3M1$47.5M1$79.7M1
Net income−$6.59M2$4.39M2$24.4M2
Operating cash flow−$12.2M3−$11.7M3−$3.84M3
Capital expenditure$61,5224$160,0664$380,1134
Free cash flow (derived)−$12.3M3−$11.9M3−$4.22M3
Total debt—$693.9M5$429.1M5
Cash & equivalents$439,0966$5.93M7$7.85M7
Diluted shares19.3M19.4M24.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$48.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.86
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.7
Debt you’d be carrying
$173.19

10 shares is a claim on $48.31 of net worth that earned you $9.86 and generated −$1.7 of cash last year, against $173.19 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-15% avg · 3y
FY23 -51%FY24 1%FY25 5%

It earned an average -15% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+29% shares · 3y

Share count is up 29% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 38% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$1.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.39M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-043573 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-043573 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-043573 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-043573 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-043573 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-043573 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-043573 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)