Alto Neuroscience, Inc.

ANROdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Alto Neuroscience, Inc. earns about -41% on equity, but has diluted owners by 673% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	—	—
Net income	−$36.3M¹	−$61.4M²	−$63.2M²
Operating cash flow	−$33.4M³	−$47.4M⁴	−$51.8M⁴
Capital expenditure	$470,000⁵	$2.08M⁶	$24,000⁶
Free cash flow (derived)	−$33.9M³	−$49.5M⁴	−$51.8M⁴
Total debt	$9.86M⁷	$20.5M⁸	$16.8M⁸
Cash & equivalents	$82.5M⁹	$168.2M¹⁰	$176.5M¹⁰
Diluted shares	3.7M	24.6M	28.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$52.39

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$21.92

Free cash flow it threw off

−$17.95

Debt you’d be carrying

$5.81

10 shares is a claim on $52.39 of net worth that earned you −$21.92 and generated −$17.95 of cash last year, against $5.81 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-41% avg · 3y

FY23 —FY24 -41%FY25 -42%

It earned an average -41% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+673% shares · 3y

Share count is up 673% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 70% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999480-25-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999480-26-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999480-25-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999480-26-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999480-25-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999480-26-000002 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999480-25-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999480-26-000002 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999480-25-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999480-26-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)