MeritValue

Annexon, Inc.

ANNXdata completeness 75%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Annexon, Inc. earns about 75% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 305% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$130.3M1−$141.9M2−$134.2M3−$138.2M4−$206.7M4
Operating cash flow−$106.1M5−$116.3M6−$121.1M7−$118M8−$186.4M8
Capital expenditure$1.65M9$6.53M10$193,00011$15,00012$137,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$107.8M5−$122.8M6−$121.3M7−$118M8−$186.5M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$74.8M13$140M14$225.1M15$49.5M16$162.1M16
Diluted shares38.3M54.7M75.7M137.4M155.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$13.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$13.33
Free cash flow it threw off
−$12.02
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $13.65 of net worth that earned you −$13.33 and generated −$12.02 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
75% avg · 5y
FY21 66%FY22 156%FY23 528%FY24 -45%FY25 -329%

It earned an average 75% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+305% shares · 5y

Share count is up 305% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006232 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036408 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030849 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-131782 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006232 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036408 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030849 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-131782 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006232 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036408 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030849 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-131782 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006232 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036408 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030849 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-131782 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)