MeritValue

AleAnna, Inc.

ANNAdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

AleAnna, Inc. earns about 300% on equity, but has diluted owners by 28% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.38 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue———$1.42M1$25M1
Net income−$482,9972$1.5M3$3.42M3−$12.4M4$2.88M4
Operating cash flow−$1.1M5−$413,9176−$5.75M7−$16.9M8$10.2M8
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$875,8319$293,67910$6.76M11$28.3M11$31.8M11
Diluted shares——31.6M38.3M40.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$14.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.71
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $14.44 of net worth that earned you $0.71 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
300% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 920%FY23 —FY24 -25%FY25 5%

It earned an average 300% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+28% shares · 5y

Share count is up 28% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$0.38
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.14
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-036606 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-233650 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-083443 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-036606 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-233650 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-083443 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-026222 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-036606 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-100441 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-026222 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-036606 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)