ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO /DE/

ANFdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO /DE/ earns about 79% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 23% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $70.14 and $625.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$3.71B1$3.7B2$4.28B3$4.95B3$5.27B3
Net income$263M4$2.82M5$328.1M6$566.2M6$506.9M6
Operating cash flow$277.8M7−$2.34M8$653.4M9$710.4M9$619.1M9
Capital expenditure$97M10$164.6M11$157.8M12$182.9M12$240.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$180.8M7−$166.9M8$495.6M9$527.5M9$378.4M9
Total debt$303.6M13$296.9M14$222.1M15$015
Cash & equivalents$823.1M16$517.6M17$900.9M18$772.7M18$759.5M18
Diluted shares62.6M52.3M52.7M53.0M48.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$289.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$104.57
Free cash flow it threw off
$78.05
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $289.61 of net worth that earned you $104.57 and generated $78.05 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
79% avg · 5y
FY22 99%FY23 10%FY24 100%FY25 106%FY26 82%

It earned about 79% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−23% shares · 5y

Share count is down 23% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $70.14 and $625.45 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$625.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$495.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$349.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$495.6M
Earnings Power Value
$70.14
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$328.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$82.56
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $349.01
The three cases
Bear0.0%$161.75
Base20.0%$349.01
Bull20.0%$349.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001018840-24-000019 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001018840-25-000013 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001018840-26-000012 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001018840-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001018840-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001018840-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001018840-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001018840-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001018840-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001018840-24-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001018840-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001018840-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001018840-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001018840-24-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001018840-25-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001018840-24-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001018840-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001018840-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)