Arista Networks, Inc.
ANETdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on fileArista Networks, Inc. earns about 34% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 300% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.96 and $173.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.95B1 | $4.38B2 | $5.86B3 | $7B3 | $9.01B3 |
| Net income | $840.9M4 | $1.35B5 | $2.09B6 | $2.85B6 | $3.51B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $1.02B7 | $492.8M8 | $2.03B9 | $3.71B9 | $4.37B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $64.7M10 | $44.6M11 | $34.4M12 | $32M12 | $119.5M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $951.1M7 | $448.2M8 | $2B9 | $3.68B9 | $4.25B9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $620.8M13 | $671.7M14 | $1.94B15 | $2.76B16 | $1.96B16 |
| Diluted shares | 319.2M | 1.27B | 1.27B | 1.28B | 1.28B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $96.97 of net worth that earned you $27.53 and generated $33.33 of cash last year.
It earned about 34% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 300% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.96 and $173.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$3.68B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$3.68B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$2.09B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $42.71 |
| Base | 20.0% | $95.49 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $95.49 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001596532-24-000043 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001596532-25-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001596532-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001596532-24-000043 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001596532-25-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001596532-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001596532-24-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001596532-25-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001596532-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001596532-24-000043 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001596532-25-000028 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001596532-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001596532-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001596532-24-000043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001596532-25-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001596532-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)