MeritValue

Andersons, Inc.

ANDEdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

Andersons, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $31.09 and $69.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.21B1$3.04B1$1.63B2$1.4B2$1.53B2
Net income$104M3$131.1M4$101.2M5$114M5$95.7M5
Operating cash flow−$51.1M6$287.1M7$946.8M8$331.5M8$177M8
Capital expenditure$75.8M9$108.3M10$150.4M11$149.2M11$233.1M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$126.8M6$178.8M7$796.3M8$182.3M8−$56.1M8
Total debt$1.13B12$1.37B13$1.15B14$1.25B15$1.18B15
Cash & equivalents$216.4M16$115.3M17$643.9M18$561.8M19$98.3M19
Diluted shares33.9M34.4M34.4M34.3M34.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$362.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.87
Free cash flow it threw off
−$16.35
Debt you’d be carrying
$344.64

10 shares is a claim on $362.52 of net worth that earned you $27.87 and generated −$16.35 of cash last year, against $344.64 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 4%FY23 5%FY24 7%FY25 3%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $31.09 and $69.19 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$69.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$182.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$61.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$182.3M
Earnings Power Value
$31.09
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$104M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $61.35
The three cases
Bear0.0%$43.26
Base5.0%$61.35
Bull10.0%$82.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000821026-24-000071 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000821026-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000821026-24-000071 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000821026-25-000050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000821026-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000821026-24-000071 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000821026-25-000050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000821026-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000821026-24-000071 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000821026-25-000050 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000821026-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000821026-23-000068 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000821026-24-000071 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000821026-25-000050 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000821026-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000821026-23-000068 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000821026-24-000071 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000821026-25-000050 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000821026-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)