MeritValue

AMAZON COM INC

AMZNdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

AMAZON COM INC earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $31.8 and $52.23 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$469.8B1$514B2$574.8B3$638B3$716.9B3
Net income$33.4B4−$2.72B5$30.4B6$59.2B6$77.7B6
Operating cash flow$46.3B7$46.8B8$84.9B9$115.9B9$139.5B9
Capital expenditure$61.1B10$63.6B11$52.7B12$83B12$131.8B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$14.7B7−$16.9B8$32.2B9$32.9B9$7.7B9
Total debt$100.8B13$140.7B14$134.1B15$115.8B16$137.7B16
Cash & equivalents$36.2B17$53.9B18$73.4B19$78.8B20$86.8B20
Diluted shares10.30B10.19B10.49B10.72B10.83B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$379.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$71.74
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.11
Debt you’d be carrying
$127.17

10 shares is a claim on $379.67 of net worth that earned you $71.74 and generated $7.11 of cash last year, against $127.17 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 -1%FY23 13%FY24 18%FY25 17%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 37% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $31.8 and $52.23 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$52.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$32.2B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$47.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$32.2B
Earnings Power Value
$31.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$33.4B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$78.61
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $47.79
The three cases
Bear0.0%$37.56
Base5.0%$47.79
Bull10.0%$60.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001018724-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001018724-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001018724-26-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001018724-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001018724-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001018724-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001018724-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001018724-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001018724-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001018724-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001018724-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001018724-26-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001018724-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001018724-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001018724-25-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001018724-26-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001018724-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001018724-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001018724-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001018724-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)