AMERICA MOVIL SAB DE CV/

AMXdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

AMERICA MOVIL SAB DE CV/ earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 92054529% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.71 and $1.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$51B1$41.6B2$43.5B3$48.3B4$42.9B5
Net income$2.35B6$9.54B7$4.2B8$4.78B9$1.36B10
Operating cash flow$14.1B11$12.5B12$11.6B13$14.7B14$11.8B15
Capital expenditure$5.46B16$7.06B17$7.53B18$7.76B19$5.58B20
Free cash flow (derived)$8.62B11$5.49B12$4.08B13$6.93B14$6.23B15
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$1.74B21$1.99B22$2B23$1.31B24$1.81B24
Diluted shares66,26565.97B63.94B62.45B61.00B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.22
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.02
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $2.99 of net worth that earned you $0.22 and generated $1.02 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY20 24%FY21 21%FY22 26%FY23 23%FY24 9%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+92054529% shares · 5y

Share count is up 92054529% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.71 and $1.9 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.3%
  • fcfBase$6.23B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.3%
  • fcfBase$6.23B
Earnings Power Value
$0.71
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.2B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.79
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.49
Base4.3%$1.79
Bull9.3%$2.2

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-137773 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-133020 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-129777 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-077049 (Revenue)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-018954 (Revenue)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-137773 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-133020 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-129777 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-077049 (ProfitLoss)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-018954 (ProfitLoss)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-137773 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-133020 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-129777 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-077049 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-018954 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-137773 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-133020 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-129777 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  19. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-077049 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-018954 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  21. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-133020 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  22. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-129777 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  23. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-077049 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  24. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-018954 (CashAndCashEquivalents)