MeritValue

UBS AG

AMUBdata completeness 63%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

UBS AG earns about 7% on equity, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $9.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$7.06B1$7.12B2$3.32B3$1.53B3$3.57B3
Operating cash flow$30.6B4$10.6B5−$28.2B6−$27.1B6$24.6B6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$207.8B7$195.2B8$190.5B8$243.4B8$231B8
Diluted shares——3.86B3.86B3.86B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$230.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.24
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $230.26 of net worth that earned you $9.24 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
7% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 13%FY23 6%FY24 2%FY25 4%

It earned an average 7% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$9.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.57B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001114446-24-001605 (ProfitLoss)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001610520-25-000027 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001610520-26-000026 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001114446-24-001605 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001610520-25-000027 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001610520-26-000026 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001610520-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001610520-26-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalents)