MeritValue

AEMETIS, INC

AMTXdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AEMETIS, INC earns about -11% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 95% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$211.9M1$256.5M2$186.7M3$267.6M4$197.6M4
Net income−$47.1M5−$107.8M6−$46.4M7−$87.5M8−$77M8
Operating cash flow−$20.6M9−$22.9M10$13.8M11−$32.9M12$3.26M12
Capital expenditure$26.7M13$39.2M14$33.1M15$20.3M16$26M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$47.3M9−$62M10−$19.3M11−$53.2M12−$22.7M12
Total debt$401.2M17$541.7M18$626.5M19$766.7M20$699.6M20
Cash & equivalents$7.75M21$4.31M22$2.67M23$898,00024$4.89M24
Diluted shares30.7M34.6M38.1M45.9M60.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$51.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.84
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.79
Debt you’d be carrying
$116.64

10 shares is a claim on −$51.15 of net worth that earned you −$12.84 and generated −$3.79 of cash last year, against $116.64 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-11% avg · 5y
FY21 -7%FY22 -18%FY23 -12%FY24 -8%FY25 -9%

It earned an average -11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+95% shares · 5y

Share count is up 95% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 74% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005872 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010002 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007768 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008289 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005872 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007768 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008289 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005872 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007768 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008289 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005872 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010002 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007768 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008289 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005872 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010002 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007768 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008289 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005872 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007768 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008289 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)