MeritValue

Amerant Bancorp Inc.

AMTBdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Amerant Bancorp Inc. earns about 51% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.02 and $75.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$247.8M1$338.8M2$548.6M3$595.6M3$597.4M3
Net income$112.9M4$63.3M5$32.5M6−$15.8M6$52.4M6
Operating cash flow$67.4M7−$49.2M8$26.7M9$82.2M9$137M9
Capital expenditure$6.58M10$10.6M11$10.9M12$7.4M12$7.75M12
Free cash flow (derived)$60.9M7−$59.8M8$15.8M9$74.8M9$129.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$274.2M13$290.6M14$321.9M14$590.4M14$470.2M14
Diluted shares37.5M34.1M33.7M35.8M41.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$224.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.56
Free cash flow it threw off
$30.97
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $224.96 of net worth that earned you $12.56 and generated $30.97 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
51% avg · 5y
FY21 26%FY22 29%FY23 47%FY24 79%FY25 72%

It earned about 51% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.02 and $75.1 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$75.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.1%
  • fcfBase$74.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$55.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.1%
  • fcfBase$74.8M
Earnings Power Value
$13.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$52.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $55.81
The three cases
Bear0.0%$36.87
Base13.1%$55.81
Bull18.1%$65.58

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001734342-24-000019 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001734342-25-000023 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001734342-26-000017 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001734342-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001734342-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001734342-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001734342-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001734342-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001734342-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001734342-24-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001734342-25-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001734342-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001734342-22-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001734342-26-000017 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)