MeritValue

AMERISAFE INC

AMSFdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

AMERISAFE INC earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.41 and $30.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$315.9M1$294.7M2$306.9M3$309M3$317.3M3
Net income$65.8M4$55.6M5$62.1M6$55.4M6$47.1M6
Operating cash flow$38M7$28.2M8$29.8M9$24.2M9$11.1M9
Capital expenditure$1.3M10$2.09M11$553,00012$840,00012$2.15M12
Free cash flow (derived)$36.7M7$26.1M8$29.3M9$23.4M9$8.92M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$70.7M13$61.5M14$38.7M15$44M16$61.9M16
Diluted shares19.4M19.3M19.2M19.2M19.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$131.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.71
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.68
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $131.85 of net worth that earned you $24.71 and generated $4.68 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 22%FY23 24%FY24 26%FY25 25%

It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.41 and $30.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$19.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$23.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$20.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$23.4M
Earnings Power Value
$30.2
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$55.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$27.07
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $20.73
The three cases
Bear0.0%$20.73
Base0.0%$20.73
Bull5.0%$24.96

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019428 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030059 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082513 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019428 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030059 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082513 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019428 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030059 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082513 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019428 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030059 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082513 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003450 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019428 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030059 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082513 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)