MeritValue

AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORP /DE/

AMSCdata completeness 88%21 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORP /DE/ earns about -16% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 61% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.59 and $11.21 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$108.4M1$106M2$145.6M3$222.8M3$299.2M3
Net income−$19.2M4−$35M5−$11.1M6$6.03M6$133.8M6
Operating cash flow−$19M7−$22.5M8$2.14M9$28.3M9$23.1M9
Capital expenditure$938,00010$1.24M11$934,00012$2.42M12$4.89M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$19.9M7−$23.7M8$1.2M9$25.9M9$18.3M9
Total debt$162,00013$90,00014$25,00014$015—
Cash & equivalents$40.6M16$23.4M17$90.5M18$79.5M19$140.7M19
Diluted shares27.2M27.8M29.8M37.7M43.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$126.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.48
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.16
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $126.52 of net worth that earned you $30.48 and generated $4.16 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-16% avg · 5y
FY22 -24%FY23 -47%FY24 -16%FY25 2%FY26 4%

It earned about -16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+61% shares · 5y

Share count is up 61% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.59 and $11.21 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$18.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$10.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$18.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$29.47
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $10.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.15
Base5.0%$10.59
Bull10.0%$12.31

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-016265 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-018602 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001437749-26-018542 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-016265 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-018602 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001437749-26-018542 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-016265 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-018602 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001437749-26-018542 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-016265 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-018602 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001437749-26-018542 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-016265 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-018602 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-017986 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-016265 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-018602 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-017986 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001437749-26-018542 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)