Amrize Ltd

AMRZdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Amrize Ltd earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $22.18 and $52.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.7B1$11.7B1$11.8B1
Net income$956M2$1.27B2$1.19B2
Operating cash flow$2.04B3$2.28B3$2.21B3
Capital expenditure$630M4$642M4$788M4
Free cash flow (derived)$1.41B3$1.64B3$1.42B3
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$1.11B5$1.59B6$1.92B6
Diluted shares553.1M553.1M553.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$239.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.41
Free cash flow it threw off
$25.65
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $239.49 of net worth that earned you $21.41 and generated $25.65 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 3y
FY23 12%FY24 16%FY25 12%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 3y

Share count is roughly flat over 3 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $22.18 and $52.85 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$52.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.42B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$48.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.42B
Earnings Power Value
$22.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.19B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.96
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $48.99
The three cases
Bear0.0%$40.12
Base5.0%$48.99
Bull10.0%$59.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002035989-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002035989-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002035989-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002035989-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002035989-26-000017 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002035989-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)