MeritValue

Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

AMRXdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earns about -0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 114% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.2 and $11.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.09B1$2.21B2$2.39B3$2.79B3$3.02B3
Net income$13.2M4−$270.6M4−$84M5−$116.9M5$72.1M5
Operating cash flow$241.8M6$65.1M7$345.6M8$295.1M8$340M8
Capital expenditure$47.7M9$46.4M10$43.2M11$51.9M11$70.1M11
Free cash flow (derived)$194.1M6$18.7M7$302.4M8$243.2M8$269.9M8
Total debt$5.42B12$5.24B13$4.84B14$4.77B15$5.14B15
Cash & equivalents$247.8M16$26M17$91.5M18$110.6M18$282M18
Diluted shares151.8M150.9M176.1M309.0M324.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$2.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.22
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.31
Debt you’d be carrying
$158.36

10 shares is a claim on −$2.18 of net worth that earned you $2.22 and generated $8.31 of cash last year, against $158.36 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-0% avg · 5y
FY21 0%FY22 -4%FY23 -1%FY24 -1%FY25 3%

It earned about -0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+114% shares · 5y

Share count is up 114% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.2 and $11.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth11.6%
  • fcfBase$269.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth11.6%
  • fcfBase$269.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years11.6%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$3.25
Base11.6%$4.2
Bull16.6%$8.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 11.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001723128-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001723128-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001723128-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001723128-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001723128-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001723128-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001723128-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001723128-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001723128-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001723128-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001723128-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001723128-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001723128-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001723128-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001723128-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001723128-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001723128-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001723128-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)