MeritValue

Ameresco, Inc.

AMRCdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Ameresco, Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $12.13 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$1.03B1$1.22B2$1.82B3$1.37B3$1.77B3
Net income$54.1M4$70.5M5$94.9M6$62.5M6$56.8M6
Operating cash flow−$102.6M7−$172.3M8−$338.3M9−$70M9$117.6M9
Capital expenditure$2.21M10$4.9M11$5.3M12$5.71M12$4.29M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$104.8M7−$177.2M8−$343.6M9−$75.7M9$113.3M9
Total debt$69.4M13$78.9M14$331.5M15$322.2M16$149.4M16
Cash & equivalents$66.4M17$50.5M17$115.5M18$79.3M19$108.5M19
Diluted shares49.0M52.3M53.3M53.2M53.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$190.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.68
Free cash flow it threw off
$21.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$28.11

10 shares is a claim on $190.67 of net worth that earned you $10.68 and generated $21.32 of cash last year, against $28.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY20 14%FY21 13%FY22 11%FY23 6%FY24 9%

It earned an average 11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 115% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$12.13
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$62.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.43
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001488139-23-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001488139-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001488139-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001488139-23-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001488139-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001488139-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001488139-23-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001488139-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001488139-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001488139-23-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001488139-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001488139-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001488139-22-000014 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001488139-23-000014 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001488139-24-000014 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001488139-25-000018 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001488139-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001488139-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001488139-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)