MeritValue

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.

AMRdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. earns about 47% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 31% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $229.32 and $1,763.8 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.25B1$4.09B2$3.46B3$2.95B3$2.12B3
Net income$288.8M4$1.45B5$722M6$187.6M6−$61.7M6
Operating cash flow$174.9M7$1.48B8$851.2M9$579.9M9$144.9M9
Capital expenditure$83.3M10$164.3M11$245.4M12$198.8M12$127.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$91.6M7$1.32B8$605.8M9$381.1M9$17.8M9
Total debt$454.7M13$6.18M14$5.1M15$1.79M16$3.86M16
Cash & equivalents$81.2M17$301.9M18$268.2M19$481.6M19$366M19
Diluted shares18.9M18.2M14.6M13.1M13.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,189.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$47.47
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.68
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.97

10 shares is a claim on $1,189.19 of net worth that earned you −$47.47 and generated $13.68 of cash last year, against $2.97 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
47% avg · 5y
FY21 39%FY22 130%FY23 56%FY24 16%FY25 -6%

It earned about 47% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−31% shares · 5y

Share count is down 31% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 99% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $229.32 and $1,763.8 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,763.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$381.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$977.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$381.1M
Earnings Power Value
$229.32
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$288.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $977.76
The three cases
Bear0.0%$444.33
Base20.0%$977.76
Bull20.0%$977.76

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001704715-24-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001704715-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001704715-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001704715-24-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001704715-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001704715-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001704715-24-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001704715-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001704715-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001704715-24-000028 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001704715-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001704715-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001704715-22-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001704715-24-000028 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001704715-25-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001704715-26-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001704715-24-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001704715-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001704715-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)