MeritValue

Amplify Energy Corp.

AMPYdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Amplify Energy Corp. earns about 15% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $11.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$342.9M1$458.5M2$307.6M3$294.7M4$263.4M4
Net income−$32.1M5$57.9M6$392.8M6$12.9M7$44M7
Operating cash flow$63M8$64.5M9$141.6M10$51.3M11$49.2M11
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$460M12$380M13$115M14$127M15$015
Cash & equivalents$18.8M16$016$20.7M17—$60.7M18
Diluted shares38.0M38.4M39.0M39.7M40.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$113.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.89
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $113.57 of net worth that earned you $10.89 last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 15%FY23 30%FY24 2%FY25 11%

It earned an average 15% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$11.28
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$44M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.22
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003321 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002637 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002273 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025299 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003321 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-036005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025299 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003321 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002637 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002273 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025299 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003321 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002637 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002273 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025299 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003321 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002273 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025299 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)