MeritValue

Amplitude, Inc.

AMPLdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Amplitude, Inc. earns about -87% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 157% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.89 and $4.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$167.3M1$238.1M2$276.3M3$299.3M3$343.2M3
Net income−$75M4−$93.4M5−$90.4M6−$94.3M6−$88.5M6
Operating cash flow−$31.7M7−$5.38M8$25.6M9$18.5M9$29.8M9
Capital expenditure$1.53M10$3.63M11$1.28M12$1.73M12$1.62M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$33.2M7−$9.02M8$24.4M9$16.8M9$28.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$307.4M13$218.5M14$248.5M15$171.7M16$81.1M16
Diluted shares51.4M111.4M116.9M123.9M132.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$18.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.71
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.14
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $18.59 of net worth that earned you −$6.71 and generated $2.14 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-87% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -96%FY23 -152%FY24 -59%FY25 -41%

It earned about -87% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+157% shares · 5y

Share count is up 157% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.89 and $4.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$24.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$24.4M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.25
Base5.0%$3.89
Bull10.0%$4.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017102 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024135 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057847 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017102 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024135 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057847 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017102 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024135 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057847 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017102 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024135 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057847 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017102 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024135 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057847 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)