MeritValue

AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC

AMPdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC earns about 65% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $358.9 and $2,788.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.4B1$14.3B2$16.1B3$17.9B3$18.9B3
Net income$3.42B4$3.15B5$2.56B6$3.4B6$3.56B6
Operating cash flow$3.33B7$4.41B8$4.69B9$6.6B9$8.32B9
Capital expenditure$120M10$182M11$184M12$176M12$162M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.21B7$4.23B8$4.5B9$6.42B9$8.16B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$9.57B13$8.76B14$8.62B14$9.49B14$11.2B14
Diluted shares120.0M113.7M107.8M102.9M98.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$666.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$362.83
Free cash flow it threw off
$831.06
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $666.9 of net worth that earned you $362.83 and generated $831.06 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
65% avg · 5y
FY21 71%FY22 83%FY23 54%FY24 65%FY25 54%

It earned about 65% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $358.9 and $2,788.62 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2,788.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.0%
  • fcfBase$6.42B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1,862.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.0%
  • fcfBase$6.42B
Earnings Power Value
$358.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.4B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$233.32
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1,862.71
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1,047.57
Base15.0%$1,862.71
Bull20.0%$2,241.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000820027-24-000015 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000820027-25-000013 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000820027-26-000016 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000820027-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000820027-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000820027-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000820027-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000820027-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000820027-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000820027-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000820027-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000820027-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000820027-25-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000820027-26-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)