MeritValue

AMN HEALTHCARE SERVICES INC

AMNdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

AMN HEALTHCARE SERVICES INC earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 20% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $56.44 and $69.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.98B1$5.24B2$3.79B3$2.98B3$2.73B3
Net income$327.4M4$444.1M5$210.7M6−$147M6−$95.7M6
Operating cash flow$305.4M7$653.7M8$372.2M9$320.4M9$269.5M9
Capital expenditure$53.6M10$75.8M11$103.7M12$80.9M12$35.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$251.8M7$577.9M8$268.5M9$239.5M9$233.8M9
Total debt$842.3M13$843.5M14$1.3B15$1.06B16$767.1M16
Cash & equivalents$180.9M17$64.5M18$32.9M19$10.6M20$34M20
Diluted shares48.0M44.9M39.3M38.2M38.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$166.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$24.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$60.7
Debt you’d be carrying
$199.13

10 shares is a claim on $166.69 of net worth that earned you −$24.84 and generated $60.7 of cash last year, against $199.13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 26%FY23 12%FY24 -8%FY25 -6%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−20% shares · 5y

Share count is down 20% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $56.44 and $69.29 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$62.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$239.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$69.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$239.5M
Earnings Power Value
$56.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$210.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $69.29
The three cases
Bear0.0%$69.29
Base0.0%$69.29
Bull5.0%$90.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001142750-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001142750-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009918 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001142750-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001142750-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009918 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001142750-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001142750-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009918 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001142750-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001142750-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009918 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001142750-22-000010 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001142750-24-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001142750-25-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009918 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001142750-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001142750-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001142750-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009918 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)