American Homes 4 Rent
AMHdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'
American Homes 4 Rent earns about 6% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.07 and $57.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $210.6M1 | $310M2 | $432.1M3 | $468.1M3 | $513.4M3 |
| Operating cash flow | $595.2M4 | $665.5M5 | $738.7M6 | $811.5M6 | $864.3M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $47.7M7 | $98M8 | $40.1M9 | $34.1M9 | $40.6M9 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $547.5M4 | $567.5M5 | $698.6M6 | $777.5M6 | $823.7M6 |
| Total debt | $3.88B10 | $4.52B11 | $4.46B12 | $5.01B13 | $5.1B13 |
| Cash & equivalents | $48.2M14 | $69.2M15 | $59.4M16 | $199.4M16 | $108.5M16 |
| Diluted shares | 325.5M | 349.8M | 362.5M | 368.0M | 370.9M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $189.64 of net worth that earned you $13.84 and generated $22.21 of cash last year, against $137.39 of debt.
It earned about 6% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 31% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.07 and $57.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth12.4%
- fcfBase$777.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth12.4%
- fcfBase$777.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$432.1M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $16.5 |
| Base | 12.4% | $37.16 |
| Bull | 17.4% | $48.32 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 12.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562401-24-000021 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562401-25-000013 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562401-26-000010 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562401-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562401-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562401-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562401-24-000021 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562401-25-000013 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562401-26-000010 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562401-23-000032 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562401-24-000021 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562401-25-000013 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001562401-26-000010 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562401-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562401-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562401-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)