American Homes 4 Rent

AMHdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

American Homes 4 Rent earns about 6% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.07 and $57.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue
Net income$210.6M1$310M2$432.1M3$468.1M3$513.4M3
Operating cash flow$595.2M4$665.5M5$738.7M6$811.5M6$864.3M6
Capital expenditure$47.7M7$98M8$40.1M9$34.1M9$40.6M9
Free cash flow (derived)$547.5M4$567.5M5$698.6M6$777.5M6$823.7M6
Total debt$3.88B10$4.52B11$4.46B12$5.01B13$5.1B13
Cash & equivalents$48.2M14$69.2M15$59.4M16$199.4M16$108.5M16
Diluted shares325.5M349.8M362.5M368.0M370.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$189.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$22.21
Debt you’d be carrying
$137.39

10 shares is a claim on $189.64 of net worth that earned you $13.84 and generated $22.21 of cash last year, against $137.39 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
6% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 5%FY23 6%FY24 7%FY25 7%

It earned about 6% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 31% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.07 and $57.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$57.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.4%
  • fcfBase$777.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$37.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.4%
  • fcfBase$777.5M
Earnings Power Value
$12.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$432.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$22.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $37.16
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.5
Base12.4%$37.16
Bull17.4%$48.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562401-24-000021 (ProfitLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562401-25-000013 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562401-26-000010 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562401-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562401-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562401-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562401-24-000021 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562401-25-000013 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562401-26-000010 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562401-23-000032 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562401-24-000021 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562401-25-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001562401-26-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562401-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562401-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562401-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)