AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC.

AMGdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC. earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 26% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $211.3 and $338.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.41B1$2.33B2$2.06B3$2.04B3$2.07B3
Net income$565.7M4$1.15B5$672.9M6$511.6M6$716.6M6
Operating cash flow$1.26B7$1.05B8$874.3M9$932.1M9$973.2M9
Capital expenditure$8.4M10$11.4M11$12.4M12$3.4M12$6.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.25B7$1.04B8$861.9M9$928.7M9$967.1M9
Total debt$2.49B13$2.54B14$2.54B15$2.62B16$2.69B16
Cash & equivalents$908.5M17$429.2M18$813.6M19$950M20$586M20
Diluted shares44.8M49.0M42.2M36.1M33.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$981.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$217.15
Free cash flow it threw off
$293.06
Debt you’d be carrying
$815.55

10 shares is a claim on $981.33 of net worth that earned you $217.15 and generated $293.06 of cash last year, against $815.55 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 28%FY23 19%FY24 15%FY25 17%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−26% shares · 5y

Share count is down 26% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $211.3 and $338.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$308.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$928.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$338.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$928.7M
Earnings Power Value
$211.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$672.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$224.08
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $338.3
The three cases
Bear0.0%$338.3
Base0.0%$338.3
Bull5.0%$435.62

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004434-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004434-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008665 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004434-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004434-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008665 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004434-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004434-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008665 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004434-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004434-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008665 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004434-23-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004434-24-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004434-25-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008665 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004434-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004434-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004434-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008665 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)