AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC.
AMGdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'
AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC. earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 26% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $211.3 and $338.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.41B1 | $2.33B2 | $2.06B3 | $2.04B3 | $2.07B3 |
| Net income | $565.7M4 | $1.15B5 | $672.9M6 | $511.6M6 | $716.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $1.26B7 | $1.05B8 | $874.3M9 | $932.1M9 | $973.2M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $8.4M10 | $11.4M11 | $12.4M12 | $3.4M12 | $6.1M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $1.25B7 | $1.04B8 | $861.9M9 | $928.7M9 | $967.1M9 |
| Total debt | $2.49B13 | $2.54B14 | $2.54B15 | $2.62B16 | $2.69B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $908.5M17 | $429.2M18 | $813.6M19 | $950M20 | $586M20 |
| Diluted shares | 44.8M | 49.0M | 42.2M | 36.1M | 33.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $981.33 of net worth that earned you $217.15 and generated $293.06 of cash last year, against $815.55 of debt.
It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 26% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $211.3 and $338.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$928.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$928.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$672.9M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $338.3 |
| Base | 0.0% | $338.3 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $435.62 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004434-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004434-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008665 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004434-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004434-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008665 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004434-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004434-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008665 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004434-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004434-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008665 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004434-23-000010 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004434-24-000010 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004434-25-000010 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008665 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004434-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004434-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004434-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008665 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)