MeritValue

AMETEK INC/

AMEdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

AMETEK INC/ earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count. The estimate methods put fair value between $58.6 and $318.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.55B1$6.15B2$6.6B3$6.94B3$7.4B3
Net income$990.1M4$1.16B5$1.31B6$1.38B6$1.48B6
Operating cash flow$1.16B7$1.15B8$1.74B9$1.83B9$1.8B9
Capital expenditure$110.7M10$139M11$136.2M12$127.1M12$130.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.05B7$1.01B8$1.6B9$1.7B9$1.67B9
Total debt$5.09B13$4.77B14$6.63B15$4.16B16$4.57B16
Cash & equivalents$346.8M17$345.4M18$409.8M19$374M20$458M20
Diluted shares232.8M231.5M231.5M232.2M231.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$459.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$64
Free cash flow it threw off
$72.28
Debt you’d be carrying
$197.47

10 shares is a claim on $459.61 of net worth that earned you $64 and generated $72.28 of cash last year, against $197.47 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 10%FY23 9%FY24 10%FY25 10%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 10% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $58.6 and $318.68 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$318.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.8%
  • fcfBase$1.67B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$188.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.8%
  • fcfBase$1.67B
Earnings Power Value
$58.6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.31B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $188.72
The three cases
Bear0.0%$84.89
Base16.8%$188.72
Bull20.0%$216.38

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001037868-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001037868-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001037868-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001037868-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001037868-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001037868-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001037868-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001037868-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001037868-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001037868-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001037868-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001037868-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001037868-23-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001037868-24-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001037868-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001037868-26-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001037868-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001037868-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001037868-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001037868-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)