MeritValue

ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC

AMDdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 33% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.3 and $21.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$16.4B1$23.6B2$22.7B3$25.8B3$34.6B3
Net income$3.16B4$1.32B5$854M6$1.64B6$4.34B6
Operating cash flow$3.52B7$3.57B8$1.67B9$3.04B9$7.71B9
Capital expenditure$301M10$450M11$546M12$636M12$974M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.22B7$3.12B8$1.12B9$2.41B9$6.74B9
Total debt$314M13$2.47B14$3.22B15$1.72B16$4.1B16
Cash & equivalents$2.54B17$4.84B18$3.93B19$3.79B19$5.54B19
Diluted shares1.23B1.57B1.63B1.64B1.64B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$385.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.5
Free cash flow it threw off
$41.17
Debt you’d be carrying
$25.04

10 shares is a claim on $385.08 of net worth that earned you $26.5 and generated $41.17 of cash last year, against $25.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 60%FY22 2%FY23 1%FY24 3%FY25 7%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+33% shares · 5y

Share count is up 33% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1204% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.3 and $21.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$20.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.41B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$21.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.41B
Earnings Power Value
$10.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.64B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$48.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $21.61
The three cases
Bear0.0%$21.61
Base0.0%$21.61
Bull5.0%$26.62

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000002488-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000002488-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000002488-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000002488-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000002488-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000002488-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000002488-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000002488-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000002488-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000002488-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000002488-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000002488-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000002488-23-000047 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000002488-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000002488-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000002488-26-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000002488-23-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000002488-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000002488-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)