MeritValue

Amcor plc

AMCRdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Amcor plc earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 69% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.82 and $27.31 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$14.5B1$14.7B2$13.6B3$15B3$23.5B3
Net income$805M4$1.05B5$730M6$511M6$1.11B6
Operating cash flow$1.53B7$1.26B8$1.32B9$1.39B9$2.15B9
Capital expenditure$527M10$526M11$492M12$580M12$922M12
Free cash flow (derived)$999M7$735M8$829M9$810M9$1.23B9
Total debt$136M13$80M14$84M15$116M16$135M16
Cash & equivalents$775M17$689M18$588M19$827M20$1.12B20
Diluted shares1.52B1.48B288.1M318.6M463.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$254.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.85
Free cash flow it threw off
$26.5
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.91

10 shares is a claim on $254.2 of net worth that earned you $23.85 and generated $26.5 of cash last year, against $2.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY22 27%FY23 38%FY24 30%FY25 8%FY26 16%

It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−69% shares · 5y

Share count is down 69% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.82 and $27.31 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$25.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$829M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$27.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$829M
Earnings Power Value
$17.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$805M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$36.9
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $27.31
The three cases
Bear0.0%$27.31
Base0.0%$27.31
Bull5.0%$33.4

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001748790-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001748790-25-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001748790-26-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001748790-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001748790-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001748790-26-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001748790-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001748790-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001748790-26-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001748790-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001748790-25-000023 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001748790-26-000022 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001748790-23-000030 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001748790-24-000022 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001748790-25-000023 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001748790-26-000022 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001748790-23-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001748790-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001748790-25-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001748790-26-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)