MeritValue

Ambiq Micro, Inc.

AMBQdata completeness 75%2 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Ambiq Micro, Inc. earns about -130% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2036% over 2 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$76.1M1$72.5M1
Net income−$39.7M2−$36.5M2
Operating cash flow−$21.4M3−$19.7M3
Capital expenditure——
Free cash flow (derived)——
Total debt——
Cash & equivalents$61M4$140.3M4
Diluted shares373,4468.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$203.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$45.71
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $203.65 of net worth that earned you −$45.71 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-130% avg · 2y
FY24 —FY25 -130%

It earned an average -130% on invested capital over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2036% shares · 2y

Share count is up 2036% over 2 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-094004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-094004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-094004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-094004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)