MeritValue

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.

AMBPdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. earns about 0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.8 and $1.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.06B1$4.69B2$4.81B3$4.91B3$5.5B3
Net income−$210M4$237M5−$50M6−$3M6$11M6
Operating cash flow$458M7$205M8$616M9$450M9$449M9
Capital expenditure$679M10$585M11$368M12$167M12$173M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$221M7−$380M8$248M9$283M9$276M9
Total debt$2.89B13$3.59B14$3.73B15$3.9B16$4.42B16
Cash & equivalents$463M17————
Diluted shares603.3M597.6M597.6M597.7M597.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$11.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.18
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.62
Debt you’d be carrying
$73.93

10 shares is a claim on −$11.43 of net worth that earned you $0.18 and generated $4.62 of cash last year, against $73.93 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 6%FY23 -1%FY24 0%FY25 0%

It earned about 0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 53% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.8 and $1.5 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$276M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$276M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$0.8
Base5.0%$0.8
Bull10.0%$2.71

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002136 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002142 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024068 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002136 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002142 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024068 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002136 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002142 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024068 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002136 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002142 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024068 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002741 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002136 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002142 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024068 (Borrowings)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-002863 (CashAndCashEquivalents)