MeritValue

Ambow Education Holding Ltd.

AMBOdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Ambow Education Holding Ltd. earns about -28% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.8M1$14.8M2$9.16M2$9.39M3$9.47M3
Net income$470,0004−$14.3M5−$3.18M5$309,0006$1.36M6
Operating cash flow−$2.5M7−$5.65M8−$290,0008$1.64M9$137,0009
Capital expenditure———$1.2M10$600,00010
Free cash flow (derived)———$435,0009−$463,0009
Total debt$1.59M11$3.03M12$3.94M13$2.7M14$3.2M15
Cash & equivalents$24.7M16$3.31M17$274,00018$1.12M19$831,00019
Diluted shares46.7M49.5M56.3M57.1M57.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.24
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.56

10 shares is a claim on $1.43 of net worth that earned you $0.24 and generated −$0.08 of cash last year, against $0.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-28% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -96%FY23 -25%FY24 -5%FY25 13%

It earned an average -28% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+24% shares · 5y

Share count is up 24% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 102% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$0.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$309,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$0.28
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051943 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004136 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-016592 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001124 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004136 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-016592 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001124 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004136 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-016592 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-016592 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001124 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051943 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004136 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-016592 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-016592 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001124 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051943 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004136 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-016592 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)