MeritValue

AMBARELLA INC

AMBAdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

AMBARELLA INC earns about -16% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 17% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.73 and $12.32 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$331.9M1$337.6M2$226.5M3$284.9M3$390.7M3
Net income−$26.4M4−$65.4M5−$169.4M6−$117.1M6−$75.9M6
Operating cash flow$38.8M7$44.1M8$19M9$33.8M9$73.5M9
Capital expenditure$9.68M10$15.1M11$12M12$10.4M12$15.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$29.1M7$29M8$7.05M9$23.5M9$58M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$171M13$113.5M14$144.9M15$144.6M15$191M15
Diluted shares36.6M38.4M39.9M41.3M42.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$139.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$17.77
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.58
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $139.28 of net worth that earned you −$17.77 and generated $13.58 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-16% avg · 5y
FY22 -6%FY23 -11%FY24 -28%FY25 -22%FY26 -14%

It earned about -16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+17% shares · 5y

Share count is up 17% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.73 and $12.32 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$23.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$23.5M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.32
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.32
Base0.0%$12.32
Bull5.0%$14.22

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038555 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046499 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119321 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038555 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046499 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119321 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038555 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046499 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119321 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038555 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046499 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119321 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038555 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046499 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119321 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)