MeritValue

Amalgamated Financial Corp.

AMALdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Amalgamated Financial Corp. earns about 38% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.76 and $247.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$180.5M1$258.5M2$358.1M3$401.3M3$422.2M3
Net income$52.9M4$81.5M5$88M6$106.4M6$104.4M6
Operating cash flow$70.5M7$147.3M8$117.2M9$124.1M9$135.8M9
Capital expenditure$2.4M10$1.67M11$1.48M12$1.78M12$1.38M12
Free cash flow (derived)$68.1M7$145.7M8$115.7M9$122.3M9$134.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$330.5M13$63.5M14$90.6M15$60.7M16$291.2M16
Diluted shares31.5M31.2M30.8M30.9M30.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$259.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$34.1
Free cash flow it threw off
$43.88
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $259.36 of net worth that earned you $34.1 and generated $43.88 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
38% avg · 5y
FY21 25%FY22 21%FY23 32%FY24 48%FY25 65%

It earned about 38% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.76 and $247.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$247.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$122.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$139.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$122.3M
Earnings Power Value
$29.76
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$88M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$44.61
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $139.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$66.55
Base20.0%$139.67
Bull20.0%$139.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823608-24-000076 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823608-25-000015 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001823608-26-000048 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823608-24-000076 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823608-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001823608-26-000048 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823608-24-000076 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823608-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001823608-26-000048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823608-24-000076 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823608-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001823608-26-000048 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823608-23-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823608-24-000076 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001823608-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001823608-26-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)